West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.9S 166.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 164.2W, APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST 
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE. A DISCRETE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
HAS YET TO FORM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C). GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 94P TRACKING GENERALLY 
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. NAVGEM IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODEL, SHOWING 94P QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING WITHIN 
24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF 
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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