West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121500Z-130600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 08P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.4S 
157.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6S 156.4W, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM SOUTHWEST 
OF BORA BORA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE 
CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN AREA OF BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CONVECTION IN THE DELTA REGION POLEWARD AND EAST OF CENTER. A RECENT 
121402Z METOP-B ASCAT ULTRA HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 
WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH STRONG WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS WRAPPING INTO THE 
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS 
THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM INDUCING STRONG 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. JTWC HAS ASSESSED THIS SYSTEM TO BE A SUBTROPICAL 
STORM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS 08P WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC IN 
NATURE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT 
OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN