South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 220600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22OCT24 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (TRAMI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.6N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 141.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A WEAK, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A 
220006Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATES A WEAK LLC WITH THE 
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KNOTS). INVEST 97W ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A 
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. 
GFS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND 
GETTING ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND 
ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY 
DEVELOP 98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON 
THE AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT IN GFS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.2N 
150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FULLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH ISOLATED, FLARING CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) 
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE 
CURRENTLY HINDERING 98W AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY. INVEST 97W 
ALONG WITH INVEST 98W ARE LOCATED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING 
ENVIRONMENT WITH TWO DISTINCT FORMATION SCENARIOS. GFS AGGRESSIVELY 
DEVELOPS 97W WHILE TRACKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH 98W TRACKING POLEWARD AND GETTING 
ABSORBED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE 97W. NAVGEM AND ECMWF, ON 
THE OTHER HAND, SHOW LITTLE DEVELOPMENT WITH 97W BUT SLOWLY DEVELOP 
98W AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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