South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10
Graphic provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center
ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.8N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 180459Z GMI 89GHZ 
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING DISPLACED OVER 
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH NO DISCERNABLE LLCC. SURFACE OBS INDICATE 5-
10 KTS AROUND THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 91W IS LOCATED 
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), 
OFFSET BY BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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