South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 201200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201200Z-210600ZJUL2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200751ZJUL2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20JUL25 0600Z, TYPHOON 09W (WIPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 
113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 61 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTPN31 PGTW 200900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 
135.0E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A SMALL AND POORLY ORGANIZED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION THAT 
IS SHEARED FROM THE WEST AS EVIDENT IN A 200902Z SSMIS PASS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OFFSET BY WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION 97W WILL CONTINUE NORTH AS IT GRADUALLY 
INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A NORTH 
TO NORTHWESTERN TRACK WITH ECENS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT 
THAN THE GEFS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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