South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 130800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/130800Z-140600ZJAN2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.5N 
134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE 
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT 91W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.2S 160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.3S 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 389 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
DISPLACED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. A 122242Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-
30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 
C). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 94P STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
3-4 DAYS, HOWEVER, THEY ARE CURRENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE STRUCTURE OF 
94P. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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