South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZOCT2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8N 148.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM 
EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050324Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF FLARING
CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANAYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND LOW (5-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
99W WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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