Typhoon KALMAEGI (31W)

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 022    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 13.6N 109.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 109.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 14.7N 106.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 15.7N 104.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 108.4E.
06NOV25. TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 151 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF LUZON. TERRAIN INTERACTION
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE VORTEX WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST TO
OCCUR NEAR TAU 24 WITHIN EASTERN THAILAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 960 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 32W
(FUNG-WONG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 31W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.3N 110.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 30 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TYPHOON 31W
(KALMAEGI) WITH A FILLING EYE AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS IT QUICKLY
APPROACHES CENTRAL VIETNAM. THE DEGRADATION IS LIKELY DUE TO AN
INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING ON THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, A 060609Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH A STRONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
AMSR2 IMAGE AND ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY LOWER END OF
THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED
BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE 060241Z METOP-C
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   RCTP: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   KNES: T6.5 - 127 KTS
   DEMS: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 114 KTS AT 060537Z
   CIMSS ADT: 124 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 117 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 116 KTS AT 060611Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 112 KTS AT 060600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 31W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR QUY NHON. 31W WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 INTO NORTHERN CAMBODIA AND
SOUTHERN LAOS. TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE
VORTEX WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24
WITHIN EASTERN THAILAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 65 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL AGREES ON RAPID WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE EXACT WEAKENING TREND THAT OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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