Tropical Storm WUTIP (01W)

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 016    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 01W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 21.2N 109.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.2N 109.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 23.2N 111.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 25.3N 114.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 27.4N 117.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 110.3E.
14JUN25. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
254 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS FILLED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN ENCROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WHICH IS CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN STEP WITH UNFAVORABLE TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION.
TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SOUTHWEST
MONSOON. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 140600Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 20 FEET.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 109.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 185 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST
PART COLLAPSED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS TYPHOON (TY) 01W
(WUTIP) MOVED AWAY FROM HAINAN AND TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST OF
CHINA. BUT WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OR DISSIPATED, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN UP, AND IS
NOW VERY WELL-DEFINED. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM CMA SHOWS A 15NM
EYE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE
SMALL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF THE
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE RADAR, OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH VERY
WARM SSTS, LOW VWS AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP TROF AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING THE VIETNAM-CHINA
BORDER REGION, ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE SHORT TIME REMAINING OVER WATER AND FLOW DISRUPTION
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND, ARE CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTORS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 53 KTS AT 132000Z
   CIMSS ADT: 49 KTS AT 140020Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 140020Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 131837Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 132300Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRENGTHENING RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORWARD SPEED SHOULD PICK UP STEADILY
AS THE TROF MOVING IN FROM THE WEST MOVES CLOSER AND TIGHTENS UP
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROF AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST.
LANDFALL ALONG THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BEIBU GULF, TO THE
WEST OF ZHANJIANG, CHINA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN CONTINUE FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CHINA THROUGH 36. IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE ONE LAST GASP OF
INTENSIFICATION UP ITS SLEEVE, AS THE LATEST MSI SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION REDEVELOPING UPSHEAR OF THE LLCC. THUS, A SHORT BURST OF
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND, WILL BE EXTREMELY SHORT-LIVED. ONCE
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE ROUGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH NONE OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATING ANYTHING
OTHER THAN STEADY WEAKENING FROM TAU 00. THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS TOO TEMPORALLY LIMITED TO
BE CAPTURED IN THE MODEL DATA. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER LANDFALL, WITH
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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