Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Central North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

      824 
ACPN50 PHFO 111121
TWOCP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred
miles north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific
basin several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
      

Summary for Hurricane Henriette (CP3/EP082025)

...HENRIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD WELL NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 11 the center of Henriette was located near 28.8, -156.5 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Henriette Public Advisory Number 30

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 
840 
WTPA33 PHFO 111443
TCPCP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Henriette Advisory Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025
 
...HENRIETTE A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD 
WELL NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 156.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henriette was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 156.5 West.  Henriette 
is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A turn 
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected 
Wednesday night and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is possible today, but 
weakening is likely to start tonight and continue over the next few 
days.  Henriette could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as 
Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Henriette Forecast Advisory Number 30

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 
000
WTPA23 PHFO 111443
TCMCP3
 
HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082025
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 156.5W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
4 M SEAS....140NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 156.5W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 155.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 158.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.5N 161.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.5N 163.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.5N 166.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 38.5N 168.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.4N 169.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 43.1N 171.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 156.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Henriette Forecast Discussion Number 30

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 
136 
WTPA43 PHFO 111445
TCDCP3
 
Hurricane Henriette Discussion Number  30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025
 
Henriette has been going through some rapid structural changes 
during the past several hours.  A 1138 UTC GMI microwave pass 
confirmed that an eyewall replacement was in the process of 
occurring, with a ring of deep convection surrounding a small 
remnant of the previous eyewall.  Since that time, convection 
appears to have redeveloped in the inner eyewall, and a small eye 
is trying to form in conventional satellite imagery.  Dvorak CI 
numbers at 1200 UTC from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC ranged between 4.0/65 
kt and 4.5/77 kt, while most of the objective numbers are between 
70-80 kt.  The initial intensity is raised to 75 kt as a blend of 
all these numbers. 
 
The hurricane is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 310/16 kt. 
The forecast track is remarkably straight and steady during the next 
48 hours or so, as Henriette is steered between a mid-level low 
northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and a large ridge centered off the 
coast of the Pacific Northwest United States.  After 48 hours, the 
cyclone is expected to turn toward the north-northwest and slow down 
when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  Confidence 
remains high in the track forecast, and the new NHC prediction is 
right on top of the previous one, lying close to the TVCE and HCCA 
consensus aids.

Henriette probably has another 12-24 hours to take advantage of an 
environment of sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures, low 
shear, and upper-level divergence.  The NHC forecast therefore 
shows a little more strengthening in the short term.  Although 
ocean temperatures only become gradually cooler after that time, 
the atmosphere quickly becomes less conducive with an increase in 
shear and convergence aloft.  Weakening is therefore indicated, at 
a rate similar to the bulk of the guidance, and Henriette could 
become post-tropical in about 60 hours when it loses its organized 
deep convection.  The post-tropical cyclone/remnant low is then 
likely to dissipate by day 5 over the far northern Pacific.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 28.8N 156.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 30.4N 158.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 32.5N 161.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 34.5N 163.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 36.5N 166.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 38.5N 168.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  14/1200Z 40.4N 169.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z 43.1N 171.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Henriette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 
940 
FOPA13 PHFO 111443
PWSCP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  30             
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP082025         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
30N 160W       34 14  16(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
30N 160W       50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
35N 160W       34  1   5( 6)   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
30N 165W       34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
35N 165W       34  X   3( 3)  48(51)  27(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
35N 165W       50  X   X( X)  11(11)  24(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
35N 165W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
40N 165W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
35N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
40N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)   1(23)   X(23)
40N 170W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG

Hurricane Henriette Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:46:52 GMT




 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 14:46:52 GMT