East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABPZ20 KNHC 121712

TWOEP 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 12 2024



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly- 

developed Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles 

south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California 

Peninsula.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.



&&



Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under 

WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under 

WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.



$$

Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092024)

  ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS  AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...
 As of 11:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12
 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.5, -107.7
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 1A

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 121745
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
1100 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS 
AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY...

 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 107.7W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward
* East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur,
Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression Nine-E.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 107.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A 
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected through 
early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight 
decrease in forward speed by Friday night. On the forecast track, 
the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California 
Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of 
California late Friday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36
hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical
storm later today.  After that, slight additional strengthening is
possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California
peninsula.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6
inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across
the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early
Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to
produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8
inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal
Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with
localized higher amounts up to 12 inches.  This heavy rainfall will
bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the
area.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the
warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult
or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect
portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or
so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja
California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024  

566 
WTPZ24 KNHC 121530
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092024
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 121459
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024
 
Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of
deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the
coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with
increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h.  The subjective
intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the
system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression.
 
The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt.  There is
a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center,
but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based
on recent microwave imagery.  A deep-layer trough located over the
western United States will steer the cyclone toward the
north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near
the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the
deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause
steering currents to weaken.  This pattern will likely induce a
slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of
the southern Gulf of California.  The cyclone could approach the
coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday.
The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first
48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the
southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.  Due to some uncertainty in the
track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of
Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
 
Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an
environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind
shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere.
However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the
northwest of the cyclone.  These conditions are unlikely to change
before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC
forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today.
Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary
weakening.  However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California
are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the
cyclone emerges back over water.  The NHC intensity forecast is
near the higher end of the intensity guidance.  Beyond 60 h,
westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves
into a drier environment.  Even if the system is still over water
at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening.  The GFS
and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone
losing its convection around 72 h.  The NHC forecast shows
weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low
beyond 72 h.
 
Key Messages:
1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions 
of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. 
This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and 
mudslides to portions of the area. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of 
the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings 
have been issued. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 121458
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092024               
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X  14(14)  24(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X  11(11)  25(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   9(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
LA PAZ         50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 17:45:31 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:34:50 GMT