East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

      000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110507
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred 
miles north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm 
Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific basin several hundred miles west 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

Summary for Tropical Depression Ivo (EP4/EP092025)

...IVO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 the center of Ivo was located near 22.7, -118.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ivo Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025 000
WTPZ34 KNHC 110847
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025
 
...IVO LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 118.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 118.7 West.  The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph.  A 
west-northwestward and then westward motion at a similar forward 
speed is expected during the next day or two.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low 
later this morning.  The remnant low is forecast to dissipate on 
Tuesday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 000
WTPZ24 KNHC 110846
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092025
0900 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 118.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 118.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 118.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025 000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110847
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092025
200 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Ivo has become devoid of deep convection as it moves over 
increasingly cooler waters and into a drier air mass.  The current 
intensity estimate is 30 kt which could be a bit generous based on 
partial scatterometer overpasses.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or around 295/9 kt.  Ivo 
should remain embedded in low-level easterly flow for the next day 
or two.  The track forecast is similar to that from the previous 
advisory and very close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, 
solution.

Since the system is expected to traverse even cooler waters during 
the next 36 hours or so, it is unlikely to regenerate significant 
deep convection.  Thus the cyclone will likely become a 
post-tropical remnant low very soon.  The global models depict 
the system opening up into a trough within 48 hours and this is 
reflected in the official forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 22.7N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 23.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 23.0N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 000
FOPZ14 KNHC 110847
PWSEP4
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092025               
0900 UTC MON AUG 11 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Ivo Graphics





5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:48:46 GMT




 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:48:46 GMT

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