East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

310 

ABPZ20 KNHC 221120

TWOEP 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

500 AM PDT Tue Oct 22 2024



For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Kristy, located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the 

southwestern coast of Mexico.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

 

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO 

header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Kristy are issued under WMO 

header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.



$$

Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP2/EP122024)

  ...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
 As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Oct 22
 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -104.8
 with movement WNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
 

Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024  

264 
WTPZ32 KNHC 220834
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024
 
...KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 104.8W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 104.8 West. Kristy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward 
motion is expected for the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next 
few days, and Kristy is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 220833
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 220835
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122024
300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024
 
Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually 
become better organized during the overnight hours.  A convective 
burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication 
that a central core could be forming.  The cyclone also has some 
impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these 
bands are a bit far from the center.  A pair of ASCAT passes from 
22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in 
the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range.  
Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become 
better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt.  The initial intensity 
is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory.

Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. 
A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer 
it westward for the next 3 days or so.  Friday into the weekend, a 
turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds 
the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a 
mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west.  The track 
forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast 
and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.  It should be noted 
that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4 
and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below 
average.

Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening, 
and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out.  For the next 
72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean 
temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist 
troposphere.  Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind 
shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4 
to 5 days.  Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4 
days and move into a much more stable environment.  Therefore, 
weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid 
weakening in 4 to 5 days.  The intensity forecast is largely 
unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to 
peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
 

Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220834
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122024               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 105W       34 62   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
10N 110W       34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 110W       34  2  87(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
15N 110W       50  X  48(48)   3(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
15N 110W       64  X  16(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
10N 115W       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 115W       34  X   2( 2)  55(57)  32(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)  17(17)  43(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  29(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
10N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  71(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  58(61)   X(61)   X(61)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  39(40)   X(40)   X(40)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
10N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  39(39)  35(74)   1(75)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  32(43)   X(43)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)   1(25)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   2(15)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   3(16)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  42(57)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  23(26)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER HAGEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:37:50 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:28:54 GMT