Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

      247 
ABNT20 KNHC 152318
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.

Western Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located offshore the coast of North 
Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some 
slight development is possible over the weekend while the low drifts 
slowly toward the southeast over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, 
remaining offshore. By Monday, environmental conditions are expected 
to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
      

Summary for Hurricane Erin (AT5/AL052025)

...ERIN INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 15 the center of Erin was located near 19.4, -58.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Erin Public Advisory Number 18a

Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025 
226 
WTNT35 KNHC 152350
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025
 
...ERIN INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE NORTH 
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Meteorological Service of Antigua/Barbuda has discontinued 
the Tropical Storm Watch for the island of Barbuda.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 24 
hours. 
 
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, as well as in the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This motion is expected
to continue through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward 
speed. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move 
just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and 
Puerto Rico over the weekend.
 
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicates that maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is expected over the next few 
days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the 
weekend. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
are investigating Erin this evening.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles 
(185 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
dropsonde data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin are expected to produce areas of
heavy rainfall tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. This
rainfall may lead to isolated and locally considerable flash and
urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this
weekend, and will likely spread to the western Atlantic early next 
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather forecast office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

Hurricane Erin Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 
981 
WTNT25 KNHC 152042
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  57.6W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE  20SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  57.6W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  56.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.6N  59.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.4N  62.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.2N  65.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.3N  67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N  68.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.8N  69.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 27.9N  70.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.2N  69.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 140NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  57.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 16/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Erin Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025 
000
WTNT45 KNHC 152043
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin continues to slowly become better organized, with convective 
banding increasing near the center and a couple of attempts to form 
an eye.  Earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data did not 
show any increase in winds after the previous advisory, although 
the central pressure fell to near 993 mb.  Satellite intensity 
estimates are in the 60-75 kt range and are gradually increasing. 
The initial intensity is held at 65 kt pending the arrival of the 
next NOAA and Air Force aircraft this evening.
 
The initial motion is 290 to 295 degrees at 15 kt. The subtropical 
ridge to the north will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward 
through the weekend, although the motion during the next 36 h or so 
may be closer to 285 degrees.  After that time, encroaching 
mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a weakness to 
develop in the ridge, and this will cause Erin to gradually turn 
northward with a decrease in forward speed. The guidance remains in 
fairly good agreement through about 72 hours. After that time, 
there are still differences in both the forward speed and 
cross-track spread with regards the turn toward the north. The 
regional hurricane models again lie along the western edge of the 
guidance envelope, while the GFS remains on the eastern edge.  
Overall, though, there again has been little change in the guidance 
envelope and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from 
the previous track.  

Erin is forecast to be in an environment of light to occasionally 
moderate northwesterly vertical shear and over sea surface 
temperatures that warm to 29-30C along the forecast track. However, 
there is also a large area of mid-level dry and African dust to the 
north of the hurricane, and the satellite appearance suggests Erin 
is ingesting tongues of dry air.  Although the environment may not 
be ideal, the regional hurricane models are in excellent agreement 
that Erin will reach a peak intensity at or above 120 kt during the 
next 2-4 days.  Based on this, the new intensity forecast now calls 
for a peak intensity of 125 kt in 72 h, and it is possible Erin 
could get stronger than this. As the hurricane gets stronger, there 
is a high chance that eyewall replacement cycles will cause 
fluctuations in intensity that are not included in the current 
forecast. It is also expected that Erin will become very large and 
powerful hurricane by the end of the forecast period in the 
southwestern Atlantic, and the current forecast wind radii at 96-120 
h may not be large enough.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands.  Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.
 
3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.
 
4.  Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.9N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 19.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 20.4N  62.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 21.2N  65.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 22.3N  67.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 23.4N  68.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 24.8N  69.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 27.9N  70.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 32.2N  69.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025 
000
FONT15 KNHC 152042
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025               
2100 UTC FRI AUG 15 2025                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS
...75 MPH...120 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   5(17)   X(17)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   2(24)   1(25)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT JOHN     34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  2   5( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SABA           34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  2   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  2   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AVES           34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Erin Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2025 23:50:53 GMT




 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 15 Aug 2025 21:21:38 GMT