Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking
Graphic provided by the National Hurricane Center
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
261
ABNT20 KNHC 111239 CCA
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Corrected to fix a typo and include mention of gale warnings for
non-tropical area of low pressure south-southeast of Nova Scotia.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Central Atlantic (AL96):
A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is
only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over
the next few days as the system drifts generally northward,
remaining over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further
tropical development. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Papin
Summary for Tropical Storm Erin (AT5/AL052025)
...TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 the center of Erin was located near 17.4, -28.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Erin Public Advisory Number 1
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025441 WTNT35 KNHC 111444 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 28.0W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2305 MI...3710 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Advisory Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025839 WTNT25 KNHC 111443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 28.0W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 27.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 28.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Tropical Storm Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 000
FONT15 KNHC 111445
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025
1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPINTropical Storm Erin Graphics
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