Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Tracking

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000

ABNT20 KNHC 221129

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 

Storm Oscar, located near the central and southeastern Bahamas.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.



$$

Forecaster Papin

Summary for Tropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162024)

  ...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN  BAHAMAS...
 As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 22
 the center of Oscar was located near 22.8, -74.7
 with movement NE at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
 

Tropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 13A

Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024  
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Oscar Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
 
...OSCAR CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN 
BAHAMAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 74.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was 
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 74.7 West.  Oscar is 
moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A faster 
northeastward motion is expected later today and on Wednesday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to move near the 
southeastern and central Bahamas today, then move away from the 
Bahamas tonight and Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the day today. Oscar is 
expected to become a post-tropical low by tonight or early 
Wednesday, and then be absorbed by another low pressure area by 
Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
east and northeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Oscar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
parts of the central and southeastern Bahamas today.
 
RAINFALL: Across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos 
Islands, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts 
around 8 inches, are expected through today. This rainfall could 
cause localized flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Oscar,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
NNNN

Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 220831
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  74.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  74.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  75.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N  73.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.7N  71.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  74.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 220833
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162024
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Oscar is at best barely a tropical storm at this time.  While
convection associated with the system has increased since the last 
advisory, most of it is occurring in clusters well away from the 
center in the eastern semicircle, and there is only minimal 
convection near the center.  Also, while 850 mb flight-level winds 
were as high as 45-50 kt during an earlier Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter mission, dropsonde and SFMR data suggests those 
winds were having trouble mixing down to the surface.  The system 
will be maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm pending the next recon 
flight and whether convection will increase further during the 
upcoming diurnal maximum.

The global models are in good agreement that a developing mid- to 
upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic will cause 
baroclinic cyclogenesis near or north of Oscar during the next 
24-48 h.  The UKMET shows Oscar become the main focus for the 
development and becoming a large extratropical low, while the GFS 
develops a second low to the north of Oscar with Oscar becoming 
absorbed into the new system.  The ECMWF and Canadian models 
forecast a blend of these scenarios, with the baroclinic low forming 
close to Oscar.  Given Oscar's organization and current trends in 
satellite imagery, the intensity forecast leans towards the GFS 
solution, with Oscar becoming a post-tropical low in less than 24 h 
and then being absorbed by the new low in 36-48 h.  

The initial motion is now 030/10 kt.  Interaction with the above 
mentioned trough should steer Oscar generally northeastward with an 
increase in forward speed until it is absorbed by the new 
baroclinic low.  The new forecast track is similar to the previous 
track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Through Tuesday, localized flash flooding will be possible across 
the southeastern Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands.  
With rainfall easing across Cuba, flooding from rainfall which has 
already occurred could remain a concern for the next several days.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 22.7N  74.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 23.8N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 25.7N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 220832
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162024               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN SALVADOR   34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
MAYAGUANA      34 17   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Storm Oscar Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 11:58:43 GMT



 

Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:22:54 GMT