Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZNOV2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171321ZNOV2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.9S 129.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY 131 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) AND A 170907Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING 
OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), STRONG POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP 
WITH A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 171330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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