Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABIO10 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/130200Z-131800ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S 
81.2E, APPROXIMATELY 547 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL ENHANCED IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 
121523Z ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A 
PATCH OF 20 KNOTS WINDS NEAR THE SPIRAL BAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE 
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DEPICT SOME SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A JET MAX TOWARDS 
THE SOUTH. THE GFS MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 
NEAR TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY. MOST MEMBERS OF GEFS AND ECENS KEEP THE 
SYSTEM BELOW CRITERIA AND AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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