Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABIO10 PGTW 221030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/221030Z-221800ZOCT2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220951ZOCT2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2N 91.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 220337Z GMI 89GHZ 
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LLC WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 220245Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CENTER 
WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTIO21 PGTW 221000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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