Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Tracking

ABIO10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/150600Z-151800ZMAR2026//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.4S 58.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 58.8E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM NORTH 
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
DISORGANIZED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE SOUTHERN MONSOON TROUGH. A 150427Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS FURTHER 
HIGHLIGHTS THE ELONGATED NATURE OF 94S ALONG WITH ITS ASYMMETRIC WIND 
FIELD CONTAINING ISOLATED AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND A MODERATE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT 
THAT 94S HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM SURFACE INTENSITY OF 30 KTS AND 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS INTO A HIGHER 
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, FILLING INTO AN OPEN SURFACE TROUGH TAU 12. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW //
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