Tropical Depression MAN-YI (25W)

WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 043    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 112.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 112.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 17.1N 110.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 16.6N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 111.7E.
19NOV24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
252 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME IRREGULAR AND FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
COMPLETELY ERODED AND SHEARED 200+ NM NORTHEASTWARD. THE EIR LOOP ALSO
SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION IN THE EIR LOOP.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
(25+ KTS) VWS, COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT HEADS TOWARD DA NANG.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING 
NR 042//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 113.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED AND EMBEDDED IN
THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD
SURGE AS THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER HAS GREATLY ERODED AND SHEARED
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
WEAKENING TREND IN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 190219Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 190540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 850MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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