Tropical Storm DANAS Advisory Bulletin (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 27.8N 120.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 120.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.9N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 25.7N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 120.3E.
08JUL25. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A STEADY TREND OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
DISSIPATING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, CONSISTENT WITH THE
DECAY EXPECTED NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MADE
LANDFALL. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DECAY AND TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD, REMAINING OVER
LAND UNTIL IT FULLY DISSIPATES BY TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REEMERGE DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPING THE
SYSTEM INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN
Tropical Storm DANAS Forecast Advisory (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (DANAS) WARNING NR
019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 27.9N 121.2E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 169 NM NORTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, WITH A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLCC,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 081304Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE CHINA COAST AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, RJTD, RCTP AND DEMS. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 34 TO 39 KNOTS ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH, WITH A WEAK NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RCTP: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 081130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 081130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 35 KTS AT 080704Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 081230Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 15-20 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER THE DOMINANT STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHILE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. TS 05W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
WITH A 65NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER
WATER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS
ENSEMBLES, WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN
|