Tropical Depression HAGUPIT (05W)

WTPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 020    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 131.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 131.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 10.9N 129.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 11.5N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 130.7E.
10MAY26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
256 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCE INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS 05W AS A WEAK, FULLY EXPOSED, AND SHALLOW VORTEX
COMPLETELY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONEMNTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
(20-25 KTS) MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, OFFSET BY WARM
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HAGUPIT WILL CONTINUE
DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
AND SUCCUMBING TO THE HIGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
NO LATER THAN TAU 12. BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
101200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12
FEET.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (HAGUPIT) 
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.1N 131.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 05W AS A SHALLOW AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE
100423Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH (20-25 KTS) MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (29-30)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI,
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED 100423Z AMSR2 DATA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW; THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ASSESSED TO BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 100600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 100429Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 26 KTS AT 100600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH WESTERLY VERTICAL
   WIND SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 05W (HAGUPIT) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTERED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO ERRATIC TRACK MOTION AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO
STEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE LOWER LEVELS. REGARDING INTENSITY,
HAGUPIT IS FORECAST TO TEETER BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED NO LATER THAN TAU 24 DUE TO HIGH
MID-LEVEL SHEAR CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT IN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. LIKEWISE, RELIABLE INTENSITY
AIDS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 05W WILL WEAKEN BELOW 25 KTS
WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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