Tropical Depression MAN-YI Advisory Bulletin (JTWC)
WTPN32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 043
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.1N 112.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 112.1E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.1N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 111.7E.
19NOV24. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
252 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME IRREGULAR AND FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS
COMPLETELY ERODED AND SHEARED 200+ NM NORTHEASTWARD. THE EIR LOOP ALSO
SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE STRATOCUMULUS WIND FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEGRADATION IN THE EIR LOOP.
ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
(25+ KTS) VWS, COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 AS IT HEADS TOWARD DA NANG.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 10 FEET.//
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Tropical Depression MAN-YI Forecast Advisory (JTWC)
WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING
NR 042//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 113.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED AND EMBEDDED IN
THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD
SURGE AS THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER HAS GREATLY ERODED AND SHEARED
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
WEAKENING TREND IN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 190219Z
CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 190540Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
VWS: 25+ KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 850MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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