Tropical Storm JEBI (19W)

WTPN32 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 024    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020600Z --- NEAR 44.9N 152.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 41 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 44.9N 152.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 50.9N 161.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 53.7N 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 46.4N 154.7E.
02OCT24. TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 41
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS JEBI IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH ITS NORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE 
DECREASED TO WELL BELOW 24 C AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS 
INCREASED TO ABOVE 25 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS AN 
EASTWARD PROGRESSING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE TRANSITION SUPPORT 
INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD-CORE MID-LATITUDE LOW. ANIMATED VISIBLE 
IMAGERY AND A 89 GHZ 020300Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORT THE 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION ASSESSMENT AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 19W 
HAS BECOME POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRUCATION CENTER, 
AND THE SYSTEMS VERTICAL STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY 
TILTED WITH HEIGHT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE 
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 
020600Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 24 
FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (KRATHON) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 020300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR 
023A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 41.7N 148.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 339 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE, NOW PRIMARILY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LLCC AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES, BUT A
COMPACT WIND FIELD AND WARM-CORE STRUCTURE REMAIN INTACT. THE
CYCLONE THUS CONTINUES TO BE ASSESSED AS TROPICAL. CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AN EARLIER
012034Z SMAP PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAD TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS AT THAT TIME, BUT SOME WEAKENING IS PRESUMED TO HAVE OCCURRED
SINCE, AS THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING OVER PROHIBITIVELY COLD WATERS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS 
   CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 012227Z
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 012330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 16-18 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS NOW OVER COLD
WATERS NORTH OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMMINENTLY, COMPLETING IN 12-24 HOURS, AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, MAX WINDS MAY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE BY THE TIME EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OCCURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JEBI WILL 
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA 
IN 24 HOURS, BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A 
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AT THAT 
TIME.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL WIND FIELD EXPECTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH

4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DVORAK FIXES TO VALID 
TIME.//
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