Tropical Storm KAJIKI (19W)

WTPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 006    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL STORM IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 17.2N 112.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 112.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 17.5N 110.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.7N 107.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 17.9N 105.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 18.1N 103.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 18.9N 99.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 010 KT, GUSTS 020 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 111.7E. 23AUG25. TROPICAL STORM 19W 
(KAJIKI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 17.2N 112.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLICAL
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RADAR
IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD BANDS.
RADIAL OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING TROPICAL
STORM (TS) 19W PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED RADAR COMBINED WITH THE OBSCURED 
EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 65 KTS AT 231816Z
   CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 231730Z 
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 19W WILL BE DRIVEN WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LANDFALL
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 24-36 ON THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE TS
19W REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH 29-30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW BETWEEN 10-15KTS FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY DIFFLUENCE WILL
ALLOW AN EXHAUST MECHANISM TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 19W IS ANTICIPATED
TO PEAK AT 70KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS THE STORM APPROACHES
THE GULF OF TONKIN AT TAU 24, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND
INTENSIFICATION WILL STAGNATE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ONCE TS 19W MAKE
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TS 19W WILL TRACK WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BY LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 24-36, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS
25NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A LARGER SPREAD BETWEEN 65-100KTS.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) GUIDANCE IS STILL TRIGGERING, INDICATING
POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, HAFS-A PARENT
GUIDANCE REVEALS SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AT TAU 24, AND AS A RESULT, 
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM FURTHER RI. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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