Tropical Depression 03W (03W)

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 005 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 005    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 110.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 110.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 22.6N 109.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 24.5N 109.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 110.1E.
26JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
231 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
03W WITH A COMPACT, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IN ANALYZED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AT AROUND 0200Z. 03W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE REMNANT VORTEX MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND. TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND MODERATE (20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE 03W TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF 03W, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS
1003 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
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WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.1N 110.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD) 03W. FLARING CONVECTION CONCEALS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LLCC, WHILE UNDER THE IMPACTS FROM AN INCREASING (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS 
INDICATE 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WEAK EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
AND 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 C. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS ASSIGNED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL TURNING CENTER FEATURE WITHIN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CORROBORATED BY 
A COMBINATION OF AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 252040Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 252040Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 252229Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 260100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE HAINAN ISLAND AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. POST-
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER TERRAIN, WITH 
DISSIPATION AND INTENSITY DECAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ANTICIPATED BY 
TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS STRONG
CONSENSUS, WITH CROSS-TRACK ERROR SPREAD OF 30 NM AT TAU 12,
INCREASING TO 165 NM AT DISSIPATION, REDUCED HOWEVER TO JUST 40 NM,
IF EXCLUDING THE PRIMARY OUTLIER - NAVGEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS MAINTAINING
INITIAL INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY PROGRESSIVE 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION. THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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