Tropical Depression FUNG-WONG (32W)

WTPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 038    
   DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 32W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   131200Z --- NEAR 26.3N 128.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3N 128.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   140000Z --- 25.9N 130.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 24.8N 131.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 26.2N 128.8E.
13NOV25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 29 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 27 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS
FULLY OPENED BECOMING INTEGRATED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DRAMATICALLY
SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 12, WHILE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST,
BEING ENHANCED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE EVEN AFTER TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
131200Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS
18 FEET.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING 
NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.8N 125.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 141 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
STROM (TS) 32W (FUNG-WONG) BECOMING ABSORBED IN A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NORTH OF MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MINIMAL
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KTS), COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26 C TO 27 C), AND DRY AIR COMPLETELY WRAPPING THE
STORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INTERPOLATION OF A 130404Z OCEANSAT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF TAIWAN

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 130508Z
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 130530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 130530Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 130508Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 130530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 32W (FUNG-WONG) CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CENTERED TO THE
WEST OF OKINAWA. THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND
THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH CIRCULATION OPENING, BRINGING THE
STORM OR ITS REMNANTS JUST SOUTH OF OKINAWA. THE 30-35 KTS WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 HOURS DESPITE THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING DISSIPATED FROM INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL
ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 60 NM UNTIL
TAU 12 DUE TO SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE MODELS BEING ABLE TO TRACK THE
CENTER OF TS 32W AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE
JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A 10 KT SPREAD. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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