Tropical Cyclone PAUL (22P)

WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z --- NEAR 5.8S 59.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 5.8S 59.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 5.4S 58.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 5.7S 59.1E.
08AUG25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, AND HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED 
APPROXIMATELY 250NM TO THE SOUTH. A 080441Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A 
HIGHLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS 
PRESENT UNDER THE CONVECTION 250NM TO THE SOUTH, WHILE IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE LLCC, WINDS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE, MAXING OUT 
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE ASSESSED 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT-B PASS NOTED ABOVE AND 
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 
AND T2.5 RESPECTIVELY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY 
UNFAVORABLE, WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING RAPIDLY SUCCUMBED TO SIGNIFICANT 
DRY AIR INTRUSION AND MODERATE TO HIGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, BOTH OF 
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN THE FUTURE. THE REMNANT 
LLCC WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE 
OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FAR TO THE SOUTH, AND MAY PASS 
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SEYCHELLES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 25 KNOTS) AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 11 FEET.
//
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WDXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AWO) WARNING NR 
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 6.3S 59.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 770 NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 02S WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED FAR TO THE SOUTH,
LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT TO BE
ASSESSED AS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD TRACING IN THE ANIMATED
EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LISTED AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 080000Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 080000Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 32 KTS AT 080000Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD. DRY AIR AND
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DETERIORATE THE
VORTEX OVER THE NEXT DAY, LEADING TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM
NO LATER THAN TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. A WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LITTLE TO NO CROSS-TRACK OR ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON
WEAKENING STARTING FROM TAU 0, HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
DISSIPATION EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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