Tropical Cyclone DUDZAI (14S)

WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 022    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 27.6S 57.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 57.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 32.0S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 58.0E.
21JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AS DEPICTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR), TC 14S HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER 
THE PAST 12 HOURS AFTER ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. 
THERE IS NO LONGER A DISCRETE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OR 
EYE EVIDENT IN THE EIR AND THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY TO TAKE A LOOK UNDER THE HOOD AT THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 201711Z HOWEVER, DID PROVIDE CONFIRMATION THAT 
THE LLCC REMAINS INTACT AND SYMMETRICAL, THOUGH IT IS STARTING TO 
WEAKEN. TC 14S HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO MUCH 
COOLER WATERS, WHILE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE INCREASING. THE SYSTEM IS 
ALREADY IN THE EARLY PHASES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS 
IT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, WILL RAPIDLY COMPLETE ETT WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT 
TYPHOONWRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED 
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210000Z IS 989
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. REFER TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EWETSE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
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WDXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 
021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.9S 57.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 280 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ST DENIS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW
AND CONFINED TO A SMALL POCKET OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIX AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED
TO BE UNDERESTIMATING INTENSITY DUE TO THE WEAK CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 14S
IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND BORDERLINE
(26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DRY AIR COMPLETELY SURROUNDS
THE VORTEX, BUT IT HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST INNER-CORE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   FIMP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 201026Z
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 201130Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 39 KTS AT 201130Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 52 KTS AT 200936Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 48 KTS AT 201130Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD, ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST, THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER
TAU 12, 14S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE EXTREME
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE JET OFFSETTING THE INCREASING SHEAR, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 14S IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 12 AS IT CROSSES
THE 26 C ISOTHERM AND BEGINS TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DROP AFTER TAU 12 AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 22-23 C AT TAU 24. AS 
A RESULT, 14S IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION INTO A STORM-
FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A MERE 55 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 24 WITH
MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STEADY INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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