Tropical Cyclone VINCE (13S)

Tropical Cyclone VINCE Forecast Graphic
Tropical Cyclone VINCE Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Tropical Cyclone VINCE Storm-Centered Infrared Tropical Cyclone VINCE Storm-Centered Enhanced Infrared Tropical Cyclone VINCE Storm-Centered Visible

Tropical Cyclone VINCE Advisory Bulletin (JTWC)

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 015    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 71.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 71.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 20.9S 70.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 21.8S 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 23.3S 68.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 25.3S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 29.7S 69.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 35.8S 74.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 71.2E.
08FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081800Z IS
946 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (TALIAH) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Tropical Cyclone VINCE Forecast Advisory (JTWC)

WDXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNING NR 
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.5S 71.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 115 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 799 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 50 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE EYE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (VINCE) BEGINNING TO COOL AND BECOME MORE
RAGGED IN APPEARANCE. AS 13S IS SURROUNDED BY DRIER AIR, ITS
CONVECTIVE BANDING SIGNATURE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTRUSION, WHILE
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG. PAIRED WITH
STRONG, RADIAL OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT IS ANALYZED AS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OSCILLATE AROUND 27C, WHILE THE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE AND FAVORABLE (15-20 KTS). THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE 
ESTIMATES AND AGENCY FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 111 KTS AT 081329Z
   CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 081800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 106 KTS AT 081800Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 081800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS,
UNTIL IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. JUST PRIOR TO THAT, A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PATH OF TC
13S, AND AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TRACKING SOUTH, IT WILL START
ACCELERATING POLEWARD. AROUND TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, AS IT CROSSES INTO AN AREA OF COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (BELOW 26C) AND DRASTICALLY INCREASING VWS
(45-50 KTS). TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY, BUT SLOW WEAKENING, OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AS THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, PAST
TAU 48, SST, VWS, COMBINED WITH A STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM
THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM AND LEAD TO A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING, CULMINATING ON 50 KTS, TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, WITH JUST 80 NM CROSS-TRACK
SPREAD AT TAU 48, WITH SIMILAR ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, INDICATING TIGHT
AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE RATE OF TURNING, WHILE THE SYSTEM ROUNDS 
THE AXIS OF THE STR. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 72, 
INDICATING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THE TIMELINE AND ANGLE 
OF TURNING DURING THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER, BETWEEN TAUS 72
AND 96, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS NEARLY
CONSTANT. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS FAR AS INTENSITY, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PREDICTING SIMILAR RATE OF WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE ONLY OUTLIER BEING GFS, WHICH SHOWS A SHARPER
INITIAL WEAKENING, EXTENDING THROUGH TAU 48, AFTER WHICH IT MATCHES
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH THE JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSELY ALIGNED
WITH. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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