Tropical Cyclone FAIDA (11S)

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 005    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 96.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 96.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 15.3S 96.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 15.6S 97.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 15.4S 97.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 14.9S 97.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 96.4E.
20MAR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
137 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS NOW VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A 201501Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALED A BAND OF 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH A COUPLE SCATTERED 35 KNOT BARBS, AIDING IN
THE ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 26S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ERODE THE VORTEX. AFTER
TAU 24, THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES VERY WEAK AND SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE VORTEX DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. GFS HAS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING MORE EASTWARD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
(AFTER TAU 96) AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT FORMS ABOUT 390 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH. THIS
INTERACTION WOULD ALLOW 26S TO REINTENSIFY. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
BEFORE THEN AND WILL NOT HAVE THE CHANCE TO REINTENSIFY. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1001 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.//
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WDXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 13.2S 95.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 121 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FRAGMENTED AND 
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S. RECENT 
CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND STORM MOVEMENT LEFT THE LLCC FULLY 
EXPOSED AND TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS 
DISPLACED TO THE WEST, DUE TO STRONG (25-30 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE LLCC PRESENT IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOP, 
WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON A 200316Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 40 KT WINDS 
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AS WELL AS A 200538Z OCEANSAT-
3 PASS REVEALING 33-38 KT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AFOREMENTIONED STRONG (25-30 
KTS) VWS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST), AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT 
ACROSS THE VERTICAL EXTENT.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 200316Z AND 200228Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER
DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD LOW-LEVEL MONSOON FLOW

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 200600Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 200530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 200530Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 200530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: STEERING PATTERN CHANGE FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH, TO THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 26S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOON FLOW. POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE STEERED IN THE SAME
DIRECTION BY THE NER TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT 
HOWEVER, ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AND THE SYSTEM IS 
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF 35-40 KTS OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS, 
FOLLOWED BY A DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE IN REGARD TO THE TRACK, AS 
PAST TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN, 
DRIVEN BY THE WEAKENING OF THE MONSOON SURGE, AS WELL AS THE NER TO 
THE NORTHEAST MOVING WESTWARD. AT THAT POINT, TC 26S WILL REMAIN IN A 
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION. BY 
TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE ANOTHER TURN TOWARD SOUTHEAST, 
AS THE MONSOON SURGE STRENGTHENS AGAIN. AVAILABLE INTENSITY AIDS 
INDICATE DISSIPATION BEGINNING AT TAU 96 AND COMPLETING BY THE END OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS HOWEVER POTENTIAL THAT TC 26S WILL 
INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
AUSTRALIA AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH
PREDICTS A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WITH WESTWARD TURN AT
TAU 36. ALL OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AT TAU 48, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DIRECTION.
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED
WITH A 160 NM CROSS-TRACK, INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND LEADS TO MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM TRACK FORECAST AND LOW CONFIDENCE 
THROUGHOUT TAU 120. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, DUE TO 
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS 
INDICATE SLOW AND STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, WHILE GFS, HAFS AND 
COAMPS-TC INDICATE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY 
STABILIZATION PERIOD, WITH INTENSITY OSCILLATING AROUND THE WARNING 
THRESHOLD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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