Tropical Cyclone SHAKHTI (02A)

WTIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 015    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 60.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 60.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.4N 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 60.2E.
06OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY SHEARED AND PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INCICATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) SHEAR AND EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. 02A HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS. DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT THAT
02A WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 13 FEET.//
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WDIO31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING 
NR 014//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 19.8N 60.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 97 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY 
EXPOSED AND QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LLCC REMAINS TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED AND WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW, AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY 
EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND A SECOND
STR OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT AND EASTERN ARABIAN SEA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 060600Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 060600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS QUASI-STATIONARY
AND AIMLESSLY WANDERING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, 
02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS THE STR TO ITS
SOUTHEAST BECOMES DOMINANT. 02A WILL ASSUME A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 12, PICKING UP SOME SPEED AS IT SHALLOWS OUT AND BECOMES
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ATMOSPHERIC FORCING. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH (30+ KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 02A WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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