Tropical Cyclone TALIAH Advisory Bulletin (JTWC)
WTXS33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 94.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 94.7E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.4S 93.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.1S 93.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.8S 92.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.1S 91.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.1S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
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LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.1S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.8S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 94.4E.
08FEB25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
081800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13S (VINCE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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Tropical Cyclone TALIAH Forecast Advisory (JTWC)
WDXS33 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (TALIAH) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 94.7E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 246 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 29 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
14S (TALIAH). WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS VISIBLE IN THE MSI DO NOT
ORGANIZE TIGHTLY JUST YET, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BANDING
VISIBLE IN THE 081525Z METOPC AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING STRUCTURE OF THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE 081433Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
OLDER, 081200Z RCM-2 SAR PASS, CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE, BOTH SHOWING A SWATH OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 081518Z
CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 081730Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 081800Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 14S IS FORECAST TO START TURNING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, DUE TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, BETWEEN 13S AND
14S. THIS STEERING MECHANISM WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS, KEEPING THE TC TALIAH WITHIN A REGION OF MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 27C, WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OF 15-20 KTS, ALLOWING TC 14S KEEP INTENSIFYING. PAST TAU 48 THE
STR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, REORIENT, AND MOVE THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS
TC 14S TO BEGIN A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN, NOW BEING DRIVEN BY THE
BUILDING RIDGE DIRECTLY TO THE EAST, COMING OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER,
TC 14S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING, WHILE IT ENCOUNTERS LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, INCLUDING RAPIDLY DROPPING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (DOWN TO 25-26 BY TAU 120), INCREASING SHEAR, AND
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR OVERALL
AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL STEERING PATTERNS DETERMINING
THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN, FOLLOWED BY A POLEWARD TRACK SHIFT. AT THE
SAME TIME CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREADS REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN
THE GUIDANCE. THIS LEADS TO ELEVATED UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO THE
TIMELINE AND SHARPNESS OF EACH TURN, WITH OUTLYING GALWEM AND UKMET
PREDICTING A SHARPER, NEARLY NORTHWARD TURN AT TAU 12. MEANWHILE,
OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL CORNERING. HIGH INITIAL
UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO A NEARLY 150 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72,
EXPANDING TO OVER 300 NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. SIMILARLY, THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH AS WELL, MAINLY DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK ASSESSMENT. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF MODELS
SUGGEST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 96 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. COAMPS-TC RI ENSEMBLE IN THE MEANTIME
SHOWS A 20 PERCENT RI PROBABILITY BY TAU 60, INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DRIVEN MAINLY BY A SLIGHTLY
MORE WESTWARD TRACK, KEEPING THE VORTEX WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR A LONGER PERIOD. JTWC INTENSITY TRACK GUIDANCE IS LAID IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING CLOSER TO THE GRADUAL
INITIAL TURNING. JTWC INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO PLACED CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
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